| It was quickly recognised that the Convention commitments could only be a first step in the international response to climate change. Climate prediction models show that deeper cuts in emissions will be needed to prevent serious interference with the climate. The Kyoto Protocol, agreed in December 1997, was designed to address this issue. Developed countries agreed to targets that will reduce their overall emissions of a basket of six greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride) by 5.2% below 1990 levels over the period 2008-2012. For the first time these targets will be legally binding, and differentiated between Parties to the Convention. For example, the European Union and its member states agreed to -8%, the United States to -7%, Japan to -6%, Russia and the Ukraine to return to 1990 levels, and Australia was allowed an 8% increase. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union and its member states can agree to meet their commitments jointly. This 'bubble' arrangement allows the EU's target to be redistributed between member states to reflect their national circumstances, requirements for economic growth, and the scope for further emission reductions. In June 1998, under the UK Presidency, environment ministers agreed how the target should be shared out. The UK agreed to reduce its emissions by 12.5%, which will now become its legally binding target under the Kyoto Protocol. Targets for other member states ranged from -21% for Germany and Denmark, to -6% for the Netherlands, +13% for Ireland and +27% for Portugal. Most developed countries believe that the targets they agreed at Kyoto are demanding. In many cases, their emissions are forecast to be significantly higher than 1990 levels in 2010 so that, in real terms, reductions of as much as 15% and beyond may be required. Significant programmes of action will be required. |
